PMA Says More Metalformers See Gloom Lifting

As a greater number of metalforming companies this month see an increase in their average daily shipping levels compared with June, more also anticipate the trend of general economic activity to rise, according to the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

Thirty-one percent of 131 PMA members surveyed said their average daily shipments in July are above those of three months ago, more than double the 14 percent who said this in June, while 37 percent said their shipping levels have declined, down from 49 percent last month, according to the PMA?s business conditions report, released Friday.

Some 46 percent of members predict the trend of incoming orders over the next three months will increase compared with the previous three months, up significantly from the 29 percent who forecast rising orders in June. Only 15 percent forecast that incoming orders would decrease vs. 25 percent who anticipated a downward trend in June.

Thirty-seven percent of participants predict an improvement in overall economic activity (up from 21 percent in June), 47 percent expect that activity will remain unchanged (vs. 58 percent last month) and 16 percent said that activity will decline (down from 21 percent in June), the PMA reported.

"Customer markets such as automotive, truck, appliance and construction are all still very soft, but the July data confirms that a bottom has been reached for many members. Their expectations for the next three months are the most positive that we have seen in a year," PMA president William E. Gaskin said.

"Certainly the metalforming industry is not yet in full recovery, but we hope this month?s data is the beginning of a positive trend."

One metalformer has pushed out his own forecast for a rebound in orders to September, saying his company "was one of the last holdouts to be going strong but now we are seeing the impact of negative economic conditions as well."

The PMA member, a sales manager for a Wisconsin fabricator, told Friday that business had been strong because the company had three-fourths of it devoted to defense-related work and zero exposure to automotive.

Now, however, "with customer shutdowns," including in its other customer segments such as mining, electrical power generation and agriculture, "the third quarter is pretty quiet." He said he anticipates an upturn in business at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

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